关键词: 双渠道供应链, 时间敏感, 预测, Bertrand模型

Abstract: To study the supply chain competition problem with consumer time preference under dual channel of Internet direct marketing and traditional distribution,a pricing and demand competitive strategy considering consumer time-sensitive was proposed.In this strategy,the time preferences of consumer were predicted by retailer and manufacturer respectively,and a time sensitive coefficient was used to represent the influence degree of consumer needs by delivery time.According to different value of prediction time sensitive coefficient,two circumstances of certain and uncertain consumer time-sensitive coefficient were taken into consideration,the supply chain pricing model and the corresponding demand model considering the consumer time sensitive coefficient were established by applying Bertrand game method.The correlation between pricing strategy and consumer time-sensitive coefficient of two channels were analyzed,and the impact of E-business application level of consumers on dual channel supply chain operation was discussed.Simulation example was performed to analyze the influence of consumer time-sensitive coefficient's forecast value of manufacturers and retailers on dual supply chain profit.Thus,the effectiveness of proposed model and strategy was illustrated.

Key words: dual-channel supply chain, time-sensitive coefficient, forecasting, Bertrand model